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June 2021

A systemic approach to the energy transition in Europe

There are many possible pathways towards a carbon-neutral future. Achieving it by 2050 is possible, but this requires urgent action.

But this is not just a technical challenge. To make the energy transition a reality, we need to solve a huge systemic problem, coordinating countless individual voluntary decisions on investment, consumption and behaviour across Europe.

This means transforming the entire European energy system — a change which will affect every part of our society and require huge investment during the transition. It must be done in a socially equitable way. And we already need to accelerate progress if we want to achieve the EU’s target of net zero emissions by 2050.

Many different policy options must be evaluated for their potential to deliver emission targets, as well as their economic efficiency and the contribution they make to maintaining social balance.

Using these criteria, the best available evidence points to six main themes:

  • Technological diversity: Huge global investments in technology will be needed in the coming decades. But in general it is often difficult to predict the winning technologies of the future. So, rather than searching for a single silver bullet, Europe must develop and deploy a broad range of technologies while maintaining common, EU-wide goals. This is important not only to create a dynamic and flexible energy system, but also because different countries in Europe have different structures and needs.
  • Managing deep complexity: We must find new ways to balance supply and demand in a complex energy system that includes variable sources such as solar and wind power. Electrification, new infrastructure, energy efficiency, demand management, and innovative uses of data can all help to manage this complexity. For hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as long distance transport and heavy industry, there are alternatives to direct electrification, such as green hydrogen fuels.
  • Governance and regulation: We need a strong carbon pricing mechanism as part of a mixture of regulatory measures and incentives. The existing European Emissions Trading System should be extended to all relevant sectors, including transport and heating/cooling, and political leaders should commit to very high carbon prices by the middle of the century, reflecting the full environmental impact of greenhouse gases. Revenues raised in this way should be used to support a fair transition, to ensure that no-one is left behind.
  • Behaviour and participation: Facilitating public behaviour and action at multiple levels is just as important as developing new technologies. In the energy system of the future, actions at individual, household, local and regional levels will play a central role in supporting energy generation and shifting patterns of use.
  • Global leadership: The EU is well placed to take a global lead in reducing emissions in a way that is economically efficient and socially equitable, while maintaining competitiveness. Europe must strengthen its diplomatic efforts to ensure that the Paris Agreement is followed by everyone, and to account for the emissions which are generated by goods imported into Europe. Reciprocal commitments from other countries will be more effective than overachieving in Europe alone.
  • Supply chain security: We must manage the global supply of materials needed to support clean energy technologies. Our dependency on imported fuels will decrease as we transition to green energy, but we must actively promote innovation, development and circular economy within Europe, or else we will end up with new dependencies on the imported materials that we need.

Scientific advice

Delivery date

29 June 2021

Supports EU mission

Adaptation to climate change
Climate-neutral and smart cities

Supports UN sustainable development goals

Affordable and clean energy
Sustainable cities and communities
Responsible consumption and production
Climate action

Resources

The Group of Chief Scientific Advisors responds to the request for advice from the European Commission.

Their policy recommendations are based on the best available scientific evidence.

Energy transition SO cover
Bibliographic information
DOI
10.2777/14221
ISBN
9789276343974
Licence
Copyright
Cite as
European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Group of Chief Scientific Advisors, (2021). A systemic approach to the energy transition in Europe : scientific advice to strengthen the resilience of the European energy sector, Publications Office.
The Scientific Opinion is written jointly by the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors. Former Advisors (‘alumni’) may also contribute.
Portrait of Elvira Fortunato

Elvira Fortunato

Alumnus
Portrait of Nicole Grobert

Nicole Grobert

Advisor
Portrait of Rolf-Dieter Heuer

Rolf-Dieter Heuer

Alumnus
Portrait of Carina Keskitalo

Carina Keskitalo

Alumnus
Portrait of Éva Kondorosi

Éva Kondorosi

Advisor
Portrait of Maarja Kruusmaa

Maarja Kruusmaa

Advisor
Portrait of Eric Lambin

Eric Lambin

Advisor
Portrait of Alberto Melloni

Alberto Melloni

Advisor
Portrait of Nebojša Nakićenović

Nebojša Nakićenović

Advisor
Portrait of Eva Zažímalová

Eva Zažímalová

Advisor

News

28 October 2021
International science advisors call on global leaders to take action on climate
The Group of Chief Scientific Advisors to the European Commission, together with 37 science advisers from around the globe, released a joint statement calling world leaders to take action on climate.
29 June 2021
Energy transition needs to accelerate urgently, says EU's Scientific Advice Mechanism
There are many possible pathways towards a carbon-neutral future -- and achieving it by 2050 is possible but requires urgent action.

Events

28 March 2022
Energy efficiency: a science advice perspective
Online event
This European Parliament Intergroup webinar will bring together scientific experts, policy advisors, stakeholders and citizen representatives to discuss the future of energy efficiency.
25 November 2021
The climate and energy transition in the age of transformation
In-person event
The energy transition requires immediate action, according to science-based advice from the European academies.
23 October 2021
Time travel and climate: changing the past to fix the future
Hybrid event
What would you do if you invented a time machine? Would you travel back to the past, to alter history or fix mistakes? Or would you rather jump forward, to collect future knowledge and bring back advanced technologies? And how could a time machine help us reinvent our energy system?
11 October 2021
Transitioning to new energy systems: What impact will it have on society and on our lives?
Online event
The energy transition is not just about new technologies and innovation. Our current lifestyles are also contributing to our energy and climate problems, and the move to different energy systems will impact on every one of us in society.
7 September 2021
Who's afraid of epistemic diversity?
Online event
What are the challenges in organising, generating and absorbing interdisciplinary science for policy?
2 July 2021
Energy transition and the EU hydrogen strategy
In-person event with streaming
This STOA workshop will serve to discuss the Scientific Opinion 'A systemic approach to the energy transition in Europe' recently released by the Chief Scientific Advisors, assisted by SAPEA.

Impact

The emphasis in our advice on the need to enhance the resilience of the EU energy system took on a new importance with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The invasion led to a request from Maroš Šefčovič, Commission Vice-President for Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight, for a follow-up statement, published in October 2021, where the advisors stressed the need for a 'people-centric' approach, coupled with investments to increase the share of low-carbon energy production in the long term.

The advice was cited across a range of media in Europe, including general news and business outlets such as Politico Europe and Forbes, as well as national platforms like TAZ (Germany) and 15 min (Lithuania). In the science and research domain, citations appeared in Nature —- including a reference in a Nature Human Behaviour paper -- alongside Horizon, Science|Business, and various European academies of sciences. Energy and sustainability-focused media also referenced the advice, with Smart Grids Info among the notable mentions. Additionally, the advice contributed to science advisory publications from the Finnish Climate Panel.

In terms of policy impact, the 2022 report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council Progress on competitiveness of clean energy technologies follows the SAM advice closely, highlighting the need to achieve a systemic change in this area, particularly on the need to develop integrated sector cooperation.

The advice has been discussed at various levels, including in a presentation to a European Parliament intergroup in March 2022. It was also at COP26 in Glasgow, where it featured in a panel discussion on science advice for a clean and fair energy transition with scientists who advise governments and international organisations, with particular prominence on the call for global leaders to give renewed impetus to the green transition, and to put people at its centre to ensure its fairness and effectiveness.

The advice also featured at Berlin Science Week, one of Europe's biggest science festivals.

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